How the H-1B lottery works now: wage levels, odds and dates

What is the H-1B lottery?

Most private-sector H-1B petitions count against an annual cap of 65,000, plus 20,000 extra numbers for people who hold a U.S. master's or higher degree. Demand far exceeds these numbers, so USCIS requires employers to submit a short electronic registration for each candidate first. Only registrations that are selected can be turned into a full petition. Universities, their affiliated nonprofits and nonprofit or government research organizations are cap-exempt and do not take part.

How does the weighted H-1B lottery work?

A DHS final rule published on December 29, 2025, and effective February 27, 2026, replaced the purely random draw with a weighted one. When registering, the employer must state which Department of Labor prevailing-wage level (I to IV) the offered salary meets or exceeds for the occupation code and work location. Each unique candidate is then entered into the pool as follows:

*DHS's own projection in the final rule, based on a modeled pool of about 320,700 eligible candidates and 94,900 selections. Real odds depend on how many people register at each level in a given year, so treat these as illustrations, not predictions. Under the old random system DHS estimated a flat chance of about 30% for everyone.

Rules that matter for the wage level

• Each person counts once. A candidate can be selected only once regardless of how many entries or registrations they have.
• Multiple locations. If the worker may work in more than one area, the employer must choose the lowest wage level the salary meets across those areas.
• Multiple registrations. If several employers register the same person at different levels, the person is weighted at the lowest of them.
• The petition must match. At the petition stage USCIS checks that the job, location and pay support the level claimed. A mismatch can lead to denial or revocation.
• Two rounds. USCIS first selects for the regular cap from all candidates, then selects for the 20,000 advanced-degree numbers from the remaining U.S. master's holders. Both rounds use the weighting.

When is the H-1B lottery? Process and key dates

FY 2028 timeline

As of October 28, 2026, USCIS has not announced FY 2028 registration dates. Based on the pattern of the last several years, we estimate:

• Registration: a window of about two weeks in March 2027 (estimate).
• Selection notices: by late March 2027 (estimate).
• Petition filing: from April 1, 2027, for at least 90 days (estimate).
• Employment start: October 1, 2027, the start of FY 2028.

USCIS usually announces dates in a newsroom alert several weeks ahead. Pending proposals could also change the season: DHS's proposed $103,265 fee for cap-subject petitions and DOL's proposal to raise prevailing wage levels were both still not final as of October 2026.

H-1B lottery selection rates by year

USCIS publishes registration totals on its electronic registration page. The figures below are eligible registrations and selected registrations. Selections include second rounds where they occurred, and from FY 2025 onward selection was by unique beneficiary, so years are not perfectly comparable.

What we know about FY 2027, the first weighted draw

• USCIS completed the initial selection in March 2026 and announced on July 17, 2026 that it had received enough petitions to reach the FY 2027 cap, so there was no second round.
• The September 2026 proclamation reports that selections at the two highest wage levels made up about 46.3% of all selections, and level I about 17.8%.
• Registrations for candidates holding at least a U.S. master's degree rose from 45.1% of the total in FY 2026 to 66.1% in FY 2027, according to the same proclamation.
• Registrations from the largest IT staffing and outsourcing firms fell from 24,946 to 2,055, a 92% drop, also per the proclamation.

Wage-level-by-wage-level selection rates for FY 2027 have not been published by USCIS as of October 28, 2026. Our lottery odds estimator uses DHS's model and will be updated when official data appears.

Can employers improve H-1B lottery odds?

• Offer a salary that genuinely meets a higher prevailing-wage level for the role and location.
• Describe the role and worksite accurately; inflating the level to win the draw risks denial and possible fraud findings.
• Consider cap-exempt employment, L-1, O-1 or treaty categories such as TN, E-3 and H-1B1 if the role allows. The work visa finder can help compare them.

What the four wage levels mean

The Department of Labor publishes prevailing wages for each occupation code and metropolitan area, based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics survey. Each occupation and area has four levels. Level I roughly reflects entry-level pay, level II a qualified worker with some experience, level III an experienced worker, and level IV a fully competent expert. The same salary can be level IV in one city and level II in another, so location matters as much as pay.

For the lottery, the employer picks the highest level that the offered salary equals or exceeds. It does not need a formal DOL prevailing wage determination at registration, but the petition must later include evidence supporting the level, usually the certified LCA and the wage data used. If the offered salary is below OEWS level I, for example because the employer relies on another legitimate wage source such as a private survey, the regulation requires the employer to select level I, so the registration is entered once.

What happens after the H-1B lottery?

Selection only gives the employer the right to file a petition; it is not an approval. The employer must file a complete petition in the filing window, the role must be a specialty occupation, and the worker must qualify. If the candidate is in the United States on F-1 OPT, a timely petition can also trigger cap-gap protection. Candidates who are not selected can be registered again the following March; there is no limit on the number of years someone can enter. Unselected registrations are not refunded.

Other changes affecting cap season

As of October 28, 2026, the $100,000 payment is not collected because of court orders, DHS's proposed $103,265 cap-subject fee is not final, and DOL's March 2026 proposal to raise prevailing wage levels is not final. If the DOL proposal is finalized, the dollar thresholds for each wage level would rise, which would change which level a given salary meets.

What to ask an attorney

• Which occupation code and wage level does this role honestly support at each worksite?
• Is the candidate eligible for the advanced-degree round?
• If not selected, which non-cap options fit before next March?

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